Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (20 Jan 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
Landfall between
19 Jan 2021 18:00 - 20 Jan 2021 18:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
GREEN
2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
GREEN
2 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.5, 57.2
GREEN
2 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.3, 54.9
GREEN
2 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 330000 people -15, 53
GREEN
2 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 2.2 million people -15.6, 51.1
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2 million people -16, 48 Madagascar
GREEN
2 21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 96000 people -17.7, 43.9 Madagascar
GREEN
2 22 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -20, 40
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Antsiranana Madagascar
Toamasina Madagascar
Mahajanga Madagascar

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
Marovoay Mahajanga Madagascar City 31000 people
Ambato Boeni Mahajanga Madagascar City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
Anahidrano 60 0
Port Berge WPB 65 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
Madirovalo WMV unknown 0
Ambatomainty AMY unknown 0
Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
Besalampy BPY 38 Civ. Paved No 4900
Tambohorano WTA 7 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Maintirano MXT 30 Civ. Unpaved No 4200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Antataha MGANM Madagascar
Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
Saint Mary Island Madagascar
Maintirano MGMXT Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Ambilivily 1954
Amboromalandy 1934

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Ambanizana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 Jan 2021 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (53 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 17 Jan 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1